The Cincinnati Bengals had plenty to be thankful for on Thursday night. After missing nearly three months with a surgically repaired toe, Joe Burrow made his highly anticipated return to the field, leading the Bengals to a stunning 32-14 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in primetime.[^1]

For a team that had lost four straight games and sat at 3-8 heading into Thanksgiving, Burrow's comeback couldn't have been scripted any better. But while the LSU product delivered in his return, the bigger question remains: Is it too little, too late for Cincinnati's playoff hopes?

The Injury That Changed Everything

Joe Burrow Toe Injury

Burrow's season effectively ended before it really began. In Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the franchise quarterback suffered a Grade 3 turf toe injury that required surgery to repair a torn ligament.[^2] The initial prognosis was grim—a minimum three-month recovery timeline that would have sidelined him until mid-December at the earliest.

The Bengals tried to stay afloat without their leader. They turned first to Jake Browning, then traded for 40-year-old Joe Flacco from their division rival Cleveland Browns. While Flacco showed flashes of his former glory, the results spoke for themselves: Cincinnati went just 1-7 in Burrow's absence, with the defense allowing a league-worst 32.7 points per game.[^3]

The losing streak mounted, the playoff odds dwindled, and yet Burrow remained determined to return. Even as the season slipped away, he accelerated his recovery, progressing from 7-on-7 drills to 11-on-11 scrimmages a full month ahead of schedule.[^4]

"I'm not going to sit if healthy," Burrow stated plainly when asked about returning to a 3-8 team.[^5] For the two-time NFL Comeback Player of the Year, the mathematics of playoff probability were irrelevant. His job was to play football, and once he could do it safely, nothing else mattered.

A Triumphant Return

Joe Burrow Returns

Burrow's return game showcased both the quarterback the Bengals had been missing and the challenges he still faces. Playing with a carbon fiber plate in his left cleat to protect his repaired toe, Burrow had to switch to sneakers between series to alleviate numbness and discomfort.[^6]

Despite the equipment adjustments and rust from a 74-day absence, Burrow looked sharp when it mattered. He connected with fellow LSU alum Ja'Marr Chase for explosive gains of 43 and 15 yards, reminding everyone of the chemistry that has defined Cincinnati's offense since both arrived in 2020 and 2021 respectively.[^7]

The Bengals struggled in the red zone during the first half, settling for field goals on multiple occasions. But in the second half, Burrow shook off the rust with two touchdown passes that helped Cincinnati pull away from a Ravens team that had won five straight games entering Thanksgiving.[^8]

More surprising than Burrow's performance was the defensive effort Cincinnati put forth. A unit that had been historically bad all season suddenly forced five turnovers against reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. Three of those turnovers came from Jackson himself, including two fumbles and an interception.[^9]

The Bengals had tallied just 10 takeaways in their first 11 games. On Thursday alone, they matched half that total in a single night.[^10]

The Playoff Math Doesn't Add Up

Burrow's heroics and the defensive turnaround made for a memorable Thanksgiving, but they don't change the harsh reality facing Cincinnati. At 4-8, the Bengals are clinging to mathematical possibilities rather than realistic playoff hopes.

According to various playoff projection models, Cincinnati's postseason chances hover around 3-7%, depending on the source.[^11] To even have a prayer, the Bengals would need to win out their remaining five games—a schedule that includes road trips to face playoff contenders and another showdown with the Ravens.

Remaining Schedule:

Week	Opponent	Record
14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6-5
15	vs. Tennessee Titans	2-9
16	@ Cleveland Browns	2-9
17	vs. Denver Broncos	6-5
18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	6-5

Even if Cincinnati runs the table, they'll need help. The Denver Broncos, currently holding the seventh and final AFC playoff spot at 6-5, would need to collapse down the stretch. The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts, both ahead of Cincinnati in the standings, would need to stumble as well.[^12]

It's not impossible—the Bengals would become just the fourth team in NFL history to make the playoffs after losing at least eight of their first 12 games if they pull it off. But it requires everything to break perfectly, a scenario that seems unlikely given how this season has unfolded.

Why Burrow's Return Still Matters

So if the playoffs are essentially out of reach, why does Burrow's return carry such significance?

First, there's the simple competitive reality. As long as mathematical elimination hasn't occurred, professional athletes compete. Burrow's refusal to shut it down, even in a lost season, speaks to the culture he's helped build in Cincinnati. Since arriving as the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft after his legendary national championship run at LSU, Burrow has transformed the Bengals from perennial also-rans into legitimate contenders.

His presence changes everything about how this team operates. The offensive line plays sharper. Ja'Marr Chase and the receiving corps elevate their games. Even the defense, as evidenced by Thursday night, seems to feed off his energy and leadership.

Second, Burrow's return provides crucial evaluation time for the 2026 season. At 4-8, Cincinnati is already looking ahead to next year. Getting Burrow game reps, allowing him to rebuild timing with his weapons, and assessing what pieces need to be added or replaced in the offseason—these are all valuable exercises even if they don't result in playoff football.

The Bengals have invested heavily in Burrow, signing him to a five-year, $275 million contract extension in 2023 that made him the highest-paid player in NFL history at the time.[^13] Every snap he takes helps protect that investment by ensuring he's fully healthy and game-ready for 2026.

Third, there's the individual legacy factor. In the 2024 season, he led the NFL with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns while winning his second Comeback Player of the Year award.[^14]
In 2025, he played just two games before the turf toe injury, completing 58.3% of his passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns.[^15] While those numbers don't tell much of a story given the small sample size, getting healthy reps over the final five weeks could help him rebuild momentum heading into 2026 and maintain his standing among the NFL's elite quarterbacks.

The Defense Dilemma

Thursday night's defensive performance was encouraging, but it also highlighted just how frustrating this season has been. Where was this unit for the first 11 games?

Cincinnati entered Thanksgiving allowing 32.7 points per game, dead last in the NFL. They had generated just 10 takeaways all season. Then suddenly, against one of the league's hottest teams, they looked like a completely different squad—physical, opportunistic, and disruptive.[^15]

If the Bengals can maintain even a fraction of that intensity, they have the offensive firepower with Burrow, Chase, and running back Chase Brown to be dangerous down the stretch. The problem is consistency. This defense has been so unreliable all season that one good game doesn't erase months of breakdowns.

Head coach Zac Taylor will need to figure out how to bottle whatever his defensive coordinator cooked up for Thanksgiving and make it a regular occurrence. Otherwise, even with Burrow back, Cincinnati will continue to find itself in shootouts it can't always win.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Realistically, the Bengals' season is likely over in terms of playoff contention. But that doesn't mean the next five weeks are meaningless.

This is an opportunity for Cincinnati to build momentum heading into the offseason. With Burrow healthy, Chase continuing his All-Pro caliber season, and young players like Chase Brown emerging as legitimate weapons, the foundation remains strong. The defense desperately needs an infusion of talent, particularly in the secondary and at linebacker, but the core pieces are in place.

The AFC North will be fiercely competitive in 2026. Pittsburgh continues to reload despite changing quarterbacks. Baltimore has Lamar Jackson in his prime. Even Cleveland, despite their struggles, has talent on the roster. Cincinnati can't afford to waste a year of Burrow's prime, which means this offseason will be critical for roster construction.

Getting Burrow healthy reps now, identifying which young players can contribute, and building chemistry—these are all valuable uses of the remaining games even if they don't culminate in January football.

The Competitive Spirit

Perhaps the most important takeaway from Burrow's return isn't found in statistics or playoff percentages. It's found in his simple statement: "I'm not going to sit if healthy."

In an era where load management and strategic rest have become commonplace, Burrow's old-school mentality stands out. He didn't build his reputation at LSU by taking the easy way out, and he's not about to start now in the NFL. That 2019 season in Baton Rouge, where he threw 60 touchdowns and led the Tigers to a perfect 15-0 record and national championship, was built on relentless competition every single week.[^16]

That same mindset defines his approach to the NFL. Win or lose, playoff-bound or eliminated, Burrow competes. His teammates see it, his coaches appreciate it, and Bengals fans have embraced it as a defining characteristic of their franchise quarterback.

The Bottom Line

Joe Burrow's Thanksgiving return was everything Cincinnati could have hoped for—a convincing victory, encouraging signs from the quarterback, and a defensive performance that offered a glimpse of what this team could be at full strength. The 32-14 drubbing of Baltimore kept the Bengals' slim playoff hopes mathematically alive, even if the odds remain stacked against them.

At 4-8 with five games remaining, Cincinnati faces an uphill battle that borders on impossible. They'll need to win out and get help from multiple teams. The more likely scenario is that this season will end without playoff football for the second time in three years.

But that doesn't diminish what Burrow's return represents. It's a reminder that the Bengals, when healthy, remain one of the AFC's most dangerous teams. It's proof that their franchise quarterback possesses the competitive fire and durability to overcome significant injuries. And it's a preview of what Cincinnati could look like in 2026 if they can keep their core healthy and address the defensive deficiencies that doomed this season.

For now, Bengals fans can be thankful for Thursday night—for Burrow's return, for a dominant victory, and for five more weeks of watching their quarterback compete, regardless of what the standings say.

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