Benched and Expensive: Can Tua Pull a Jalen Hurts Comeback?

The irony is almost too perfect to be real. On December 17, 2025, the Miami Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa in favor of seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers, just 18 months after handing him a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension. The quarterback who once replaced Jalen Hurts in college football's biggest moment now finds himself in the exact position Hurts was in seven years ago—watching from the sideline, questioning his future, and wondering if redemption is possible.

For Dolphins fans, the benching feels like the end of an era that never quite delivered on its promise. But if Tua is looking for hope, he need only look at the career trajectory of the man he replaced in Alabama's 2018 National Championship game.

The Alabama Connection: When Roles Were Reversed

January 8, 2018 remains one of the most pivotal moments in recent college football history. Jalen Hurts, who had led Alabama to a 26-2 record over two seasons as starter, struggled through a brutal first half against Georgia in the National Championship game. The Crimson Tide trailed 13-0, and Hurts had managed just 21 passing yards on 3-of-8 passing.

At halftime, head coach Nick Saban made the call. Tua Tagovailoa, a true freshman who had barely seen the field all season, would replace Hurts. What happened next became instant legend—Tagovailoa threw three touchdown passes, including the game-winning 41-yard strike to DeVonta Smith in overtime, cementing his status as a college football icon overnight.

Hurts cried after being benched, later admitting the moment "stabbed him in the heart." He spent the 2018 season as Tagovailoa's backup before transferring to Oklahoma for his final college season. He was drafted in the second round by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020, a selection many viewed as questionable at best.

Fast forward to February 2025: Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP honors, leading the Eagles to a dominant 40-22 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. He now plays under a five-year, $255 million contract. The benching that broke him became the fuel that propelled him to superstardom.

Tua's Dolphins Disaster: How Did It Come to This?

The fall has been shockingly swift for Tagovailoa. After leading the NFL in passing yards in 2023 (4,624 yards) and completion percentage in 2024 (72.9%), Tua looked like the franchise quarterback Miami had been searching for since Dan Marino retired. The Dolphins rewarded him with that massive extension in July 2024, making him the sixth-highest-paid quarterback in the league at $53.1 million per year.

Then 2025 happened. Through 14 games, Tagovailoa has thrown a league-leading 15 interceptions while averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt—the worst marks of his career. His QBR of 36.7 ranks 30th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. The Dolphins were eliminated from playoff contention after a 28-15 loss to the Steelers on Monday Night Football, a game where Tua managed just 65 yards through three quarters before padding stats in garbage time.

"I need convicted quarterback play," head coach Mike McDaniel said when announcing the benching. "I thought Quinn gave us the best chance to do that."

The numbers tell the story of a quarterback who has regressed dramatically:

The Financial Nightmare: Miami's $99 Million Problem

Here's where the Dolphins find themselves in an almost impossible situation. Cutting Tua outright would result in a staggering $99.2 million dead cap hit—the largest in NFL history, surpassing even the $85 million the Broncos absorbed when releasing Russell Wilson. Even spreading it over two years as a post-June 1 cut would mean $67.4 million in 2026 and $31.8 million in 2027.

Trading Tagovailoa presents its own challenges. Any team acquiring him would need to take on at least $39 million in 2026 salary. The Dolphins might need to attach draft picks just to unload the contract—essentially paying another team to take their quarterback, similar to how the Texans gave the Browns a second-round pick to take Brock Osweiler's contract in 2017.

The most likely scenario? Miami keeps Tagovailoa on the roster in 2026 as an expensive backup—the Kirk Cousins treatment the Falcons are considering with their own quarterback situation. It's an expensive insurance policy, but it avoids the catastrophic cap hits.

Where Could Tua Land? Five Potential Destinations

If the Dolphins do find a way to move Tagovailoa, several teams could take a flyer on the former Alabama star:

1. Indianapolis Colts: With Anthony Richardson struggling and Jones out for the season, the Colts could view Tua as a bridge option. Shane Steichen's offense might unlock what Miami couldn't, similar to how he resurrected Gardner Minshew's career.

2. Las Vegas Raiders: If the Raiders don't land the top pick for Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, Tagovailoa could start for a team with young weapons in Brock Bowers and likely 2026 first-round pick Ashton Jeanty.

3. Los Angeles Rams: If Matthew Stafford retires, Sean McVay's offensive system could be exactly what Tagovailoa needs to revive his career. McVay has historically elevated quarterbacks.

4. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals appear ready to move on from Kyler Murray. Tua's skill set might translate better to Arizona's offense than it did in Miami's.

Can History Repeat Itself?

The parallels between Hurts and Tagovailoa extend beyond that fateful night in Atlanta. Both were benched after disappointing performances. Both faced questions about their arm strength and ability to carry an offense. Both dealt with injuries that raised durability concerns. And both found themselves at crossroads that would define their careers.

The key difference? When Hurts was benched, he was a 19-year-old backup fighting for a starting job. When he transferred to Oklahoma, he proved his critics wrong by transforming his game in Lincoln Riley's air raid offense. He showed the versatility and mental toughness to succeed at the highest level.

Tagovailoa is 27 years old with a lengthy concussion history and a contract that makes him nearly untradeable. He led the NFL in passing yards just two seasons ago, but also showed he struggles when his first read is taken away. Former Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard said Tua goes into "panic mode" when the play breaks down—a harsh but accurate assessment based on his 2025 film.

But here's the thing about quarterback careers—they're unpredictable. Baker Mayfield was written off by the Browns, Panthers, and Rams before leading the Buccaneers to the playoffs. Geno Smith was a punchline for years before becoming a Pro Bowler in Seattle. Sam Darnold is thriving with the Vikings after failing with the Jets, Panthers, and 49ers.

Tagovailoa has shown he can be elite in the right system with the right weapons. His 2023 season wasn't a fluke—he genuinely looked like one of the league's best passers. The question is whether a change of scenery and a fresh start can recapture that magic.

The Redemption Blueprint

If Tua wants to pull a Jalen Hurts comeback, he'll need to follow a similar path:

Accept the situation: Hurts has said the benching "never left him," but he channeled that pain into motivation. Tua needs to view this as an opportunity, not an ending.

Find the right fit: Hurts thrived under Lincoln Riley's system at Oklahoma, then with the Eagles' rushing attack. Tua needs a coach who can scheme to his strengths—quick releases, timing routes, and getting the ball out fast.

Prove the doubters wrong: Teams will be skeptical given the contract, injuries, and recent performance. Tua needs to show he's still the quarterback who led the league in passing yards.

Stay healthy: This is the biggest question mark. Tua has missed significant time in four of his five NFL seasons. Availability is the best ability.

The Dolphins' decision to bench Tagovailoa just months after giving him $212 million is one of the most stunning quarterback moves in recent NFL history. But it doesn't have to be the end of his story. Jalen Hurts knows better than anyone that getting benched can be the best thing that ever happened to you—if you're willing to use it as fuel.

Whether Tua can turn heartbreak into triumph remains to be seen. But if the roles are about to reverse one more time, NFL fans will be watching to see if the student can learn from the master.

SOURCES:

1. ESPN - How Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa impacts their future - https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47335527/dolphins-tua-tagovailoa-benched-quinn-ewers-draft-mike-mcdaniel
2. CBS Sports - Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers and an uncertain, expensive future - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dolphins-bench-tua-quinn-ewers-new-starting-qb-tua-contract-hard-to-move/
3. NBC Sports - Which teams could be in the market for Tua Tagovailoa? - https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/which-teams-could-be-in-the-market-for-tua-tagovailoa
4. Sports Illustrated - Could Dolphins Move On From Tua Tagovailoa? Analyzing the QB's Massive Contract - https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins-tua-tagovailoa-contract-future-options
5. NBC Sports - Taking a closer look at Tua Tagovailoa trade possibilities - https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/taking-a-closer-look-at-tua-tagovailoa-trade-possibilities
6. ESPN - Inside the complicated rivalry of Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts - https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38695573/tua-tagovailoa-jalen-hurts-alabama-eagles-dolphins-rivalry
7. Men's Health - Jalen Hurts Says He Cried After He Got Benched at Alabama - https://www.menshealth.com/trending-news/a64512972/jalen-hurts-alabama-college-benching/